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Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season/May-June
May 01E.ALVIN AOI: South of Cost Rica System flared up over the far eastern edge of the Pacific Ocean this morning and is now a peculiar and interest blob of thunderstorm activity south of Costa Rica. Latest analysis from the Ocean Prediction Center say that this is a 1008 mbar low-pressure system embedded in the ITCZ. Our first AOI in the EPAC this year. Bears watching. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 20:57, May 12, 2013 (UTC) I was just coming to the Wiki to tell everyone that too. Haha, It seems that we might have an early riser this season, possibly before the season even starts. This AOI looks particularly interesting to me, as of 7:20 p.m. MDT, I looked at a moving satellite picture on the NHC website. The system is beginning to show some slight rotation and thunderstorm convection looks to be somewhat healthy. Could this become Alvin? Or at least TD 1? We'll have to see. STO12 (talk) 01:20, May 13, 2013 (UTC) Currently, this system is not on the GTWO, but I will not be surprised if the NHC issues a special one soon. AndrewTalk To Me 11:09, May 13, 2013 (UTC) 90E.INVEST I'm currently not expecting much out of this one, but the next few weeks are going to be quite interesting. Several models see quite a bit of action in the next several days as a powerful MJO pulse comes into the Atlantic and EPac by about May 22nd. By then the CMS sees at least 2 or 3, and possibly even 4, storms developing in the EPac, though heading out to sea. The 06Z GFS is consistent with developing an area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean by that time and that could possibly become Andrea. Of course, this is 200 or more hours into the future and the uncertainty is quite high at that point in time, but the next few weeks will bear watching nontheless. I think it's time to wake up from our NHem slumber. There also might have been a subtropical storm in the Atlantic north of the Lesser Antillies the past few days, but NHC never issued any special advisory on that. Might be discovered post-season, if it isn't operationally. Ryan1000 18:52, May 13, 2013 (UTC) :The models are in love with this system, most take it up to a hurricane in a few days time, but I think that's a bit bullish for this time of year. Regarding that "sub-tropical storm" we had a few days ago, it was interesting, but it was sort lived and probably will not be added at the end of this year. I found the track I made on several different weather blogs which was cool, but on the other hand felt like they forced a storm out of that low. Going to be tracking more potent systems in the upcoming months. This year is definitely going to be much more interesting than what we have had the last few years. Supportstorm (talk) 23:06, May 13, 2013 (UTC) :::It's possible this could become a hurricane, but yeah, that's pretty agressive for a storm this early on. Alma of 1990 remains the earliest hurricane on record to form in the East Pacific proper since the sattelite era began, becoming a cat 1 on the day the season begun, May 15 (though Ekeka of 1992 is undoubtedly the earliest one known to form east of the dateline itself). I have doubts this will do it though. And knowing this year will be ENSO-neutral, we could see anything from a re-2005 (hopefully not) to a re-2000 or 2008. 2013 will definitely be interesting to watch. Ryan1000 23:18, May 13, 2013 (UTC) :::::On TWO at 30%!Isaac829 19:54, May 14, 2013 (UTC) This will most likely become Alvin, from nothing to 30%? I mean come on! This thing is getting more organized and is in a slightly favorable environment. Another early season start, about the same time as Aletta from last year. STO12 (talk) 21:43, May 14, 2013 (UTC) : Some models do see this turning north in 4-5 days and possibly threatining southern Baja California, but I think this will, more likely than not, stay out to sea. I do think this will become Alvin though, it's moving into an increasingly favorable environment. The MJO pulse that will come here in a week or so is just getting warmed up with Alvin-to-be. Ryan1000 11:08, May 15, 2013 (UTC : 80% here comes td1 and possibly Alvin.Allanjeffs 12:50, May 15, 2013 (UTC) : THE WAIT IS FINALLY OVER! Tropical Depression One-E has now formed! The Munk is expected to become a Category 1/2 hurricane this Friday according to the NHC! The system is moving westwards at 10kt. Guys, what do you think? 16:30, May 15, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Depression One-E First storm forms on the first day of season. Perfect.--Isaac829 19:31, May 15, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Storm Alvin That didn't take long... Supportstorm (talk) 20:45, May 15, 2013 (UTC) :It looks very nicely organized for it's current intensity. Yqt1001 (talk) 00:11, May 16, 2013 (UTC) ::It's 40 knts per ATCF. GO EPAC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 02:06, May 16, 2013 (UTC) :::^ Basin discrimination (Just kidding). Alvin looks better every hour.--Isaac829 02:13, May 16, 2013 (UTC) ::::Abnormally high SSTs ahead, would not be suprised to see our first major of the year. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 02:16, May 16, 2013 (UTC) :::::Like YE prefer the Epac I prefer the Atlantic anyways Alvin have a chance to reach cat 1 hurricane or 2 our vacations are over the hurricane season is here.Allanjeffs 02:48, May 16, 2013 (UTC) Neat how Alvin developed on par with the start of the hurricane season. I think this will peak as a solid Category 1 hurricane. As of nightfall its CDO has expanded. 'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 02:52, May 16, 2013 (UTC) :Probably not as fast as it form it would probably die it looks like it has join the monsoon through.Allanjeffs 20:26, May 16, 2013 (UTC) : 40 mph now. Could be gone tomorrow.Isaac829 02:42, May 17, 2013 (UTC) : Its down and out imoAllanjeffs 17:48, May 19, 2013 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Alvin And it's dead. Never got past 50 mph. Unfortunately, this one failed. I was really hoping at least a cat 1 out of this. 'Ryan1000' 11:12, May 17, 2013 (UTC) :Wow, Alvin passed by so fast. I missed this storm entirely. Maybe I will catch Barbara. AndrewTalk To Me 11:16, May 17, 2013 (UTC) : At 20% atm.Isaac829 21:42, May 17, 2013 (UTC) :: What a twist, now the whole world is dead. As fast as the season began it died out. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 00:45, May 18, 2013 (UTC) Back up to 30% again. It's got marginal SSTs to work with but the upper level winds are decreasing. Keep an eye out. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 19:50, May 18, 2013 (UTC) :It looks like it's trying to make the best out of what it has. A look at the NHC's TAFB forecast doesn't expect much from this either. All the winds are stacked towards the north of the system, and it looks like it'll be that way from now on. 'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 22:08, May 18, 2013 (UTC) :Back down to 20% again. 'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 14:38, May 19, 2013 (UTC) Down to 10% as conditions become unfavorable. AndrewTalk To Me 18:08, May 19, 2013 (UTC) :It has been almost a week and Alvin is still quite lively. Seems quite organized on the current satellite images actually. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 23:11, May 23, 2013 (UTC) :Just crossed the 140W. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 23:35, May 24, 2013 (UTC) 02E.BARBARA AOI: Over Colombia/Panama GFS and several other models pulls out a weak tropical storm/depression out of this one four day onwards. Amazingly enough, it is already sitting at 1005mb. With almost non-existent wind shear ahead of its path, we might get Barbara in a couple of days time. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 00:21, May 20, 2013 (UTC) : Two Storms in May? For 2 straight years? Wow, that's a first. Hope that happens! 'Ryan1000' 01:26, May 20, 2013 (UTC) LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ON WED AS A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE E PACIFIC NEAR 09N87W LATE IN THE WEEK. :: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SOF 12N AS THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 09N ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. We've got company. Two separate systems will move into the EPac later today and later this week. GFS anticipates a weak coast-hugger tropical storm/depression, similar to the track of Odile 08'. Keep your eyes open, the sea is not dead. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 19:31, May 20, 2013 (UTC) :Dunno what NHC is doing with their TWOs, but TCFP anticipates some chance of formation. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 00:12, May 21, 2013 (UTC) :::I do too, but not until, say 4 days out. Btw (off-topic a bit), pray for the folks in Moore...Their recent tornado was possibly much worse than the one of 1999. 'Ryan1000' 14:47, May 21, 2013 (UTC) A TROPICAL LOW CROSSING THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA NEAR 10N80W IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE SW CARIBBEAN WED. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A SECOND WEAKER LOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N86W EARLY THU...WITH THE LOW MEANDERING IN THAT AREA THIS WEEKEND. I've got a bad feeling for this storm, there isn't much shear ahead of its path and the seas are well over what it should be at this time of the year. The surface low haven't established yet and GFS is predicting a borderline hurricane. And of course, it's pretty horrible to see what's happening in Moore. Hope they can recover from their losses. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 21:25, May 21, 2013 (UTC) :Currently south of Guatemala. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 23:11, May 23, 2013 (UTC) :: Up to 20%, NHC seems to have combined this system with 91E. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 23:16, May 24, 2013 (UTC) :: This one has more potential than 91E ever had this one is to be watch as models bring it like a cat 1 or strong storm towards Mexico.Allanjeffs 00:46, May 25, 2013 (UTC) 92E.INVEST This is the one to the east. Currently forecast to become Barbara before heading into southern Mexico. 91E didn't make it. 'Ryan1000' 12:06, May 26, 2013 (UTC) I believe this is at 30%. AndrewTalk To Me 17:43, May 26, 2013 (UTC) :This one looks pretty good. Yqt1001 (talk) 20:36, May 26, 2013 (UTC) I think this will probrably become Barbara, but likely not more than a TS. 'Ryan1000' 21:20, May 26, 2013 (UTC) :Circulation now seen on satellite, this is now to to 1008mb. I have a feeling that the next TWO might up this to red (50%). Definitely strengthening, expect Barbara soon. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 22:48, May 26, 2013 (UTC) ::Up to 40%. Yqt1001 (talk) 23:42, May 26, 2013 (UTC) ::::HS, red is 60% or more, not 50%.Isaac829 00:15, May 27, 2013 (UTC) :::::Oops, my bad. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 01:16, May 27, 2013 (UTC) :::::Might become Barbara but if it doesn`t do it soon it will make landfall.Allanjeffs 01:47, May 27, 2013 (UTC) :::::Up to 50%. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 05:50, May 27, 2013 (UTC) :::::::Yeah, this'll become Barbara. It could even become a hurricane according to some models, but likely not more than 75-80 mph, if that. 'Ryan1000' 11:31, May 27, 2013 (UTC) Up to '''60%'. This could shape up to be something interesting. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 15:04, May 27, 2013 (UTC) :80%. Should be TD2E soon. Yqt1001 (talk) 17:40, May 27, 2013 (UTC) :TD 2E should develop tonight or tomorrow morning if this trends continues I don`t think a hurricane wil ldevelop but Barbara appears poise to come to us from this system.Allanjeffs 21:01, May 27, 2013 (UTC) I think we will see at least tropical depression from this. Probably, we will see a tropical storm. Anyway, this invest is already affecting Mexico. AndrewTalk To Me 21:49, May 27, 2013 (UTC) :I have a feeling this might turn out to be like Five-E or Eleven-E. It might not have enough time to strengthen before it makes landfall. Probably will be a tropical depression. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 23:00, May 27, 2013 (UTC) ::The models are all over the place for this one. GFDL sees a landfalling hurricane around Texas after reintensifying in the Gulf. HWRF sees a category 2 hurricane making landfall and rapidly dissipating. Conservative models doesn't pick up on 92E at all. Anyway, NHC noted decreased convection and is still sticking with 80%. The outflow of 92E is enormous, with curve bands all the way the Cuba. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 00:03, May 28, 2013 (UTC) ::::Looks like it's coming in sooner than I thought. We might not even see Barbara from this, but only 2-e. I think it still has a chance to become Barbara, at most 50 mph, but not much more than that. Ryan1000 00:24, May 28, 2013 (UTC) :::::UP TO 90%! Staying up late to see if a depression forms, and looks like it's going. Advisories should be initiated next morning. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 05:56, May 28, 2013 (UTC) :::::::Anytime now, 92E. Anytime now... Ryan1000 11:33, May 28, 2013 (UTC) A recent ASCAT pass has the center as a total mess. It's also getting really close to landfall....might be getting very close to being a 90% bust. Yqt1001 (talk) 14:58, May 28, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Depression Two-E Speak to fast 2 depression of the Eastern north pacific has come to us base on ATCF filesinvest_RENUMBER_ep922013_ep022013.ren 28-May-2013 18:26 2.4K.Allanjeffs 18:41, May 28, 2013 (UTC) :Yeah my curse didn't work. :P Let's see if it can manage to get a name. Yqt1001 (talk) 18:44, May 28, 2013 (UTC) The NHC expects a 60 mph storm for this depression. AndrewTalk To Me 22:25, May 28, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Storm Barbara Well that didn't take long. (Take 2). 02E wrapped itself quickly and is now a tropical storm per latest NHC advisory. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 23:44, May 28, 2013 (UTC) :It's developing rather impressively. Yqt1001 (talk) 23:59, May 28, 2013 (UTC) :Might have a chance at becoming a hurricane after all.Allanjeffs 00:01, May 29, 2013 (UTC) :::I agree, it actually looks rather nice on sattelite imagery. Barbara is looking more impressive now than it ever was. It's pretty similar to the 2007 Barbara, but this one might have a shot at getting a bit stronger. Ryan1000 01:03, May 29, 2013 (UTC) :::I do not think Barbara will become a hurricane; it should peak as a strong tropical storm at the greatest. Also, Barbara's formation marks the first time in Pacific history two consecutive seasons had two storms forming in May. AndrewTalk To Me 02:03, May 29, 2013 (UTC) Up to 40kts and 1001mb. Strongest storm so far this year. Yqt1001 (talk) 02:38, May 29, 2013 (UTC) :It sure is developing quickly, with a neat satellite presentation that seems more than a 40 kt tropical storm. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 02:50, May 29, 2013 (UTC) :::65 mph/995 mbar. Also, in the update statement: ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO...'''You still sure about no hurricane from this Andrew? ''Ryan1000'' 11:27, May 29, 2013 (UTC) :::I knew she had a chance at hurricane strength.I had a feeling that it would strength rapidly.Allanjeffs 14:44, May 29, 2013 (UTC) NHC says they still anticipate Barbara to become a 75 mph hurricane by the next advisory, when it makes landfall in Mexico, but if it doesn't make it by then, it won't become one at all. ''Ryan1000'' 16:17, May 29, 2013 (UTC) Barbara becomes the first hurricane of the season and Eastern north pacific.Allanjeffs 17:53, May 29, 2013 (UTC) Hurricane Barbara '...BARBARA BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE COAST OF MEXICO...'Yeah, you spoke too soon Andrew. And btw, I think she rivals Humberto to an extent. It wasn't even around a day ago and now we have a hurricane hitting Mexico. This one went from TD to hurricane in less than 24 hours, Humberto made it in 14 before landfall at High Island. ''Ryan1000'' 18:11, May 29, 2013 (UTC) I knew she would topography,low shear and warm water really help this system.Allanjeffs 18:45, May 29, 2013 (UTC) : Unfortunately, this is only a temporary upgrade. I feel it will be downgraded to a TS by the next advisory and it might die within 12 hours. Barbara's tiny circulation stands no chance against the mountains on the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. It would be even less likely for her to reach the BoC. So while this is an imressive spree of intensification she put on, we might have to say good bye to Barbara at the same time. Hopefully it won't be too bad for the folks there, the only other hurricane to hit this area was 1997's Rick. ''Ryan1000'' 19:12, May 29, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Storm Barbara (2nd time) 50 mph and weakening. ''Ryan1000'' 03:38, May 30, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Depression Barbara Almost in the BoC, but it's barely alive. ''Ryan1000'' 11:17, May 30, 2013 (UTC) :The NHC expects complete dissipation in about 12 hours. However, there is a new small flare of convection to the storm's north that might make Barbara survive into the BoC. I am crossing my fingers Barbara will become the first storm since Tropical Storm One in 1965 to cross from the Pacific to the Atlantic without losing tropical characteristics. AndrewTalk To Me 11:42, May 30, 2013 (UTC) : I don't expect that by now, especially since it's now going northwest, farther over Mexico and not into the BoC. ''Ryan1000'' 17:57, May 30, 2013 (UTC) Remnants of Barbara NHC fixed the location, so Barbara did make it to the BoC, but not as a TC.--Isaac829 21:02, May 30, 2013 (UTC) : Looks like it didn't make it. They don't expect a chance of regeneration either; though it's not impossible, conditions do not favor it. ''Ryan1000'' 22:33, May 30, 2013 (UTC) : Yeah but thanks to her we now have 90L in the Atlantic.Allanjeffs 15:45, May 31, 2013 (UTC) 91E.INVEST Not sure if this is the same system, but it's now 20% on the NHC GTWO. '''CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 20:47, May 22, 2013 (UTC) : It is, hopefully it'll become Barbara. Expected to head out to sea like Alvin. Ryan1000 21:50, May 22, 2013 (UTC) ::I'm not sure whether this is the same system. GOES-14 is currently down and I can't really tell if this invest is its westernmost extension or a separate storm. Regardless, GFS predicts a landfalling hurricane around May 30th for the other storm. The current model guidance appears... ominous. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 22:59, May 22, 2013 (UTC) ::::This is the one in the EPac; the one that GFS foresees in the NW Caribbean is a different storm altogether. Regardless, I think this'll become Barbara. Ryan1000 01:33, May 23, 2013 (UTC) ::::::Now 30%, Barbara is on her way. Ryan1000 18:02, May 23, 2013 (UTC) ::::::Even though Barbara might be on her way this year for this basin NOAA is predicting a below average season.Allanjeffs 18:54, May 23, 2013 (UTC) ::::::MJO should hit EPac soon, Barbara's got a chance. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 23:11, May 23, 2013 (UTC) Still at 30%. I think we'll be seeing a season similar to last year, probrably near-normal to slightly below or above normal, more likely than not. However, I'm not looking forward to anything exceptional. My predictions for EPac remain at 14-18 named storms, 6-9 hurricanes, 3-5 majors, and near-normal to slightly above normal ACE. We're going to have ENSO neutral this year, not El Nino or La Nina, but nontheless, it's a year to watch in both the ATL and EPac. Ryan1000 23:36, May 23, 2013 (UTC) :Down to 20%Allanjeffs 18:03, May 24, 2013 (UTC) : Eh...I don't think that is the same system as this one. It's further east and south of Central America. This might have been the system GFS was foreseeing.(Forgot to sign in) Ryan1000 18:49, May 24, 2013 (UTC) ::Well, I think it merged with the one GFS was foreseeing. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 21:58, May 24, 2013 (UTC) ::This wave has gotten a lot less organized. AndrewTalk To Me 23:17, May 24, 2013 (UTC) :::Yeah, I think this one may merge the large monsoon trough to the E. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 23:31, May 24, 2013 (UTC) :::: Down to 10%. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 23:45, May 24, 2013 (UTC) :::::I really don't think that the 10% will develop, but the 20% behind it looks more interesting. STO12 (talk) 02:22, May 25, 2013 (UTC) Wow... there is a train of three AOIs in the eastern East Pacific... from west to east, 10%, 10%, and 20%, respectively. I can't identify which one is which, but I do know that 91E is the westernmost one :P. 'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 14:22, May 25, 2013 (UTC) :The 20% and 10% systems merged to create one giant system. It's currently at 80%, and looks to become Barbara not too long from now. STO12 (talk) 18:59, May 27, 2013 (UTC) :You've got the wrong storm. 91E is sitting at 10% as of now. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 22:57, May 27, 2013 (UTC) ::30% and looking better. Yqt1001 (talk) 23:53, May 28, 2013 (UTC) ::Would be amazing to have 3 name storms in the Eastern Pacific in May and 3 name storms in June in the Atlantic.Allanjeffs 00:01, May 29, 2013 (UTC) :::ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT FAVOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. So, this can become a TC :D --Isaac829 19:51, May 29, 2013 (UTC) :::::This became 40% when Barbara became a hurricane, but the models are unimpressed with this. SHIPS kills it in 3 days time... 'Ryan1000' 23:01, May 29, 2013 (UTC) And now it's near 0%. Doubt it will develop now. 'Ryan1000' 17:57, May 30, 2013 (UTC) ::::::This one has been stalling over the same area for weeks now... It's LLCC is fully exposed on satellite, which actually looks somewhat decent. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 21:43, June 2, 2013 (UTC) June Has begun, but after our little hot streak, EPac has gone quiet. 'Ryan1000' 12:51, June 1, 2013 (UTC) AOI: South of Michoacán AOI: South of Michoacán Quite, yes; Dead? No. This monsoon trough looks slightly more organized today. Although none of the models pull anything out of this, it has still got a chance nevertheless. Plus, conditions are somewhat favorable ahead, all it needs is time. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 21:49, June 2, 2013 (UTC) : Yeah, only temporarily quiet, but this is when EPac ramps up. 'Ryan1000' 00:03, June 4, 2013 (UTC) 93E.INVEST AOI: South of Michoacán Ss;dd. Add one for the EPac, 1009mb. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 23:20, June 7, 2013 (UTC) :Hopefully it will strengthen in the next while, there is a good chance that Cosme might form tomorrow or couple of days afterwards. Unsurprisingly enough, NHC is ignoring this system entirely. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 05:06, June 8, 2013 (UTC) ::Nearly stationary, disorganized but does inhibit cyclonic rotation. Will have to see what it can do in the next couple of days. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 03:38, June 11, 2013 (UTC) ::I believe this AOI will not develop.Allanjeffs 04:10, June 11, 2013 (UTC) :::We will have to see about that. I know that NHC is completely neglecting this storm, but this could very well be Cosme. This should come up on the GTWO soon, considering its neat satellite representation. Also, if it does form, I think it has got a decent chance of becoming an annular hurricane, considering the environments that it is in. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 22:56, June 11, 2013 (UTC) 93E.INVEST :::Wind shear and dry air will kill it not even the models develop it.it has no chance it has less than 24 hours to organize.23:39, June 11, 2013 (UTC)Allanjeffs :::::I agree with Allan, this AOI just doesn't look like it has much of a chance. It's very disorganized and conditions for development will only go downhill from here. 'Ryan1000' 13:18, June 12, 2013 (UTC) 95E.INVEST AOI: Over Nicaragua Another tropical wave. Could pick up over the weekend. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 00:08, June 14, 2013 (UTC) :Could be up to 10% or 20% by 12Z. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 06:23, June 16, 2013 (UTC) :::Like I said, EPac went quiet temporarily after their hot streak in May. I wouldn't expect much of this for the time being, but the Atlantic is starting to catch up. 'Ryan1000' 18:09, June 17, 2013 (UTC) ::::Slightly better organized today. Might get a mention on TWO anytime now... - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 23:05, June 18, 2013 (UTC) :::::GFS foresees a strange occurrence. This one is predicted to become Cosme and lose its initial motion while the tropical wave behind it (the AoI below this one) catches up. Fujiwhara effect takes place and they fuse into a single storm. Mind watching this one. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 23:15, June 19, 2013 (UTC) ::::::Currently sitting due south of the tip of Baja peninsula. Might be trying to develop a circulation. A LLCC as a matter of fact. NHC have been neglecting this storm for a while now, but it should be on TWO soon. 1008mb. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 00:25, June 20, 2013 (UTC) ::::::::20% now. Cosme anyone? 'Ryan1000' 13:58, June 21, 2013 (UTC) ::::::::I think so. AndrewTalk To Me 17:32, June 21, 2013 (UTC) 95E.INVEST It is now invested. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 19:33, June 21, 2013 (UTC) : Not sure which'll be Cosme first; this one clearly looks better on sattelite imagery than 94E but it's only 20%. However, I expect this to become something soon. 'Ryan1000' 22:23, June 21, 2013 (UTC) It looks as better as ever, with lots of clouds and showers. By the way, this invest now has a 30% chance of forming in the next 48 hours. AndrewTalk To Me 02:48, June 22, 2013 (UTC) : 20%, it's falling down a bit. 'Ryan1000' 15:54, June 23, 2013 (UTC) ::: 10%. Maybe this one won't become Dalila after all. 'Ryan1000' 00:01, June 24, 2013 (UTC) ::::: It's down and out. No Dalila from this. 'Ryan1000' 13:06, June 25, 2013 (UTC) 03E.COSME AOI: Over Costa Rica Another tropical wave. Also has the potential to form later this week. A Kelvin wave should reach the region towards the end of this week, perhaps resulting in a period of high activity coinciding when a MJO pulse spikes in the EPac next week. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 01:54, June 19, 2013 (UTC) Amazingly this time I concur with you.Models are showing 1 hurricane 1 ts and 1 td when the mjo come next week or early July.Things may become active in this basin.Allanjeffs 19:23, June 19, 2013 (UTC) :Up to 10%. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 18:46, June 20, 2013 (UTC) :::The models have a lot of support for this and the other AOI near this one. I think these two will become Cosme and Dalila (not sure if in that order). And there could be another AOI behind these two that could become the (traditionally epic-failing) Erick. 'Ryan1000' 13:58, June 21, 2013 (UTC) :20%. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 17:39, June 21, 2013 (UTC) ::I believe this is the invest with 50%?Anywas Cosme and Dalila are coming.Allanjeffs 18:11, June 21, 2013 (UTC) 94E.INVEST 50% now. Go invest! YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 17:38, June 21, 2013 (UTC) This invest looks really disorganized on satellite imagery (or maybe it's just me). Hopefully, it will get better looking become a tropical cyclone! AndrewTalk To Me 21:02, June 21, 2013 (UTC) : It's less organized than 95E for the time being, but NHC says conditions for development will only improve from here, so expect this to look better by tomorrow. We could very well be looking at Cosme and Dalila from 94 and 95E (again, not sure if it'll be in that order). 'Ryan1000' 22:23, June 21, 2013 (UTC) : Up to 60% and its looking really good.Allanjeffs 00:14, June 22, 2013 (UTC) ::: 7/10. Should be Cosme anytime now. 'Ryan1000' 17:53, June 22, 2013 (UTC) This invest is looking real organized now. It is poised to become a tropical depression anytime soon. Currently, it has an '''80%' chance of forming in the next 48 hours. AndrewTalk To Me 23:49, June 22, 2013 (UTC) :I think a depression is forming. Based on the last visible imagery of the day, a ring of convection is forming near the center. We should wait for 03Z advisory to see if advisories are initiated. Also I believe to-be Cosme to develop a banding eye, similar to that of Fausto's or Gustav's when they were tropical depressions. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 01:05, June 23, 2013 (UTC) ::Up to near 100%. Advisories should be initiated at 09Z. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 05:37, June 23, 2013 (UTC) ::::Is near 100% really necessary? It's TD 3-e/Cosme right now and NHC knows it. Ryan1000 12:13, June 23, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Depression Three-E Now numbered. Likely to become Cosme later today. Meanwhile, 95E is losing itself, down to 20%. Ryan1000 15:54, June 23, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Storm Cosme :Dropped 2 milibars and bumped up to Cosme. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 06:58, June 24, 2013 (UTC) ::Cosme is huge looks like a western typhoon storm.Allanjeffs 08:40, June 24, 2013 (UTC) ::I have to agree with Allan. Looking at the NHC GTWO, Cosme is a beast. AndrewTalk To Me 18:01, June 24, 2013 (UTC) :::Which is the biggest TC recorded in the Eastern North Pacific.Allanjeffs 01:30, June 25, 2013 (UTC) :::Cosme is nearly a hurricane. I hope it becomes one today! And Allan, although I do not know the answer to your question, I assume the largest Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone recorded was an intense system, like 1997's Hurricane Guillermo. AndrewTalk To Me 12:05, June 25, 2013 (UTC) :::::Most Pacific hurricanes I've seen are pretty small, some other big storms I've seen include Aletta of 1982, which remained well offshore from Central America but still caused a similar number of deaths and damage as Agatha of 2010 from severe flooding in Guatemala. Cosme should become a hurricane soon, but likely not a strong one, maybe cat 1 or 2 at most. Ryan1000 13:06, June 25, 2013 (UTC) Hurricane Cosme 65 kt, 987 mbar. --HurricaneMaker99 15:13, June 25, 2013 (UTC) :Hooray for Cosme! P.S. A funny coincidence - Cosme's 2007 precedent also had peak winds of 65 kts and a minimum barometric pressure of 987 mbar. AndrewTalk To Me 17:25, June 25, 2013 (UTC) ::This one would probably be stronger looks like a cat 2.Allanjeffs 19:30, June 25, 2013 (UTC) :::Cosme has reached its persumable peak of 75 kts and 981 mbar. It is currently at 70 kt/983 mbar. AndrewTalk To Me 12:43, June 26, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Storm Cosme (2nd time) Weakening.Isaac829 17:13, June 26, 2013 (UTC) Cosme is down to 60 kts/988 mbar. I believe the system will be completely nonexistent in ~48 hours. AndrewTalk To Me 17:13, June 26, 2013 (UTC) : Starting to collapse, It might not even have 36 hours left until it dies out. Ryan1000 17:55, June 26, 2013 (UTC) ::I can be quite sure that even after NHC stop issuing advisories, the LLC is here to stay. Cosme's large circulatory vortex is warping up quite some rotational velocity. While it may become convectively defective, the large wind gradient will take a while to degenerate into an open trough. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 20:50, June 26, 2013 (UTC) ::::I agree with that, HurricaneSpin, some of the model runs even keep Cosme's large circulation alive until it passes north of Hawaii, where it could cause some rainfall and surf in the long run. Even though it won't last much longer as a tropical system, the remnant low will stick around for quite some time. Ryan1000 20:57, June 26, 2013 (UTC) ::::::40 mph, and NHC's using new advisories boxes.Isaac829 17:53, June 27, 2013 (UTC) Post-tropical cyclone Cosme Dead.--Isaac829 20:42, June 27, 2013 (UTC) Another that bite the dust.Allanjeffs 23:37, June 27, 2013 (UTC) :It has been another couple of days, and Cosme is finally getting absorbed by a forming front in the 140W. So long, Cosme! - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 19:19, July 2, 2013 (UTC) Extratropical Cyclone Cosme Actually, not dead, now a beautiful cold-core cyclone. It should turn east and hit California.--Isaac829 02:44, July 3, 2013 (UTC) :That is a separate system. Cosme's remnant trough got absorbed by the southwest frontal tip of that system. Although we could see something subtropical out of it, it ain't heading east. It is stuck on the southern periphery of a deep layer ridge. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 03:00, July 5, 2013 (UTC) 04E.DALILA AOI:South of Mexico Behind Cosme atm and at 10%. Maybe'' this could become Dalila. 'Ryan1000' 20:57, June 26, 2013 (UTC) 96E.INVEST Invest'ed and 20%. The dynamic models see this potentially recurving north to strike Mexico, or move very near Mexico, in 4-5 days time. 'Ryan1000' 11:46, June 27, 2013 (UTC) :Well, it is a good thing that the earlier GFS and CMC runs sending a hurricane up towards the Gulf Coast isn't exactly accurate. This still needs to be watched for Dalila-to-be as impact towards the Mexican coastline is likely. But I don't think it will get anywhere near a hurricane in terms of intensity if the current model runs are accurate. This will need to pass through cooled SSTs in Cosme's wake and interact with land. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 20:52, June 27, 2013 (UTC) :::Not like I was expecting GFS to be that accurate that far out anyways, but we'll probrably get something else in the ATL soon. Btw, this is now 40%. 'Ryan1000' 12:36, June 28, 2013 (UTC) :::Dalila is coming from this and now models bring her up to hurricane status.Allanjeffs 15:06, June 28, 2013 (UTC) :::::70% now.Isaac829 18:07, June 28, 2013 (UTC) :::::I don't see why we won't have Tropical Depression Four-E in the next 24 hours. AndrewTalk To Me 22:52, June 28, 2013 (UTC) 80%, anytime now it should be TD 4-e/Dalila. 'Ryan1000' 01:08, June 29, 2013 (UTC) Should be Td 4 pretty soon and probably threaten Mexico.Another thing I am waiting though is to see if Erick fail streak will continue.Allanjeffs 01:22, June 29, 2013 (UTC) : I would hope for that. :D Eric has never been more than an epic fail every time he was used, and is the only storm in EPac history to never become a hurricane every time he was used since the naming lists of 1978. The ATL has 3 such storms, Ana, Arthur, and Beryl (but they weren't necessarily "fails" all the time...I hardly call last year's Beryl a fail). 'Ryan1000' 02:07, June 29, 2013 (UTC) ::: Still 90% and no advisories.Isaac829 22:13, June 29, 2013 (UTC) ::::Up to near 100%. Advisories should be issued at 03Z or 09Z. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 23:53, June 29, 2013 (UTC) ::::Now 4E by the ATCF files.Allanjeffs 01:49, June 30, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Depression Four-E Yep.--Isaac829 02:44, June 30, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Storm Dalila The four storm of the EPac has come to us and potentially a threat for Mexico.Allanjeffs 09:38, June 30, 2013 (UTC) :Hello, Dalila. Currently, there are tropical storm warnings and watches in effect for most of Mexico. AndrewTalk To Me 12:28, June 30, 2013 (UTC) : Not forecast to become a hurricane, but I think it will become one at some point, just not during when NHC forecasts it to. 'Ryan1000' 18:52, June 30, 2013 (UTC) ::It's in the forecast now. And is it just me, or does the latest NHC discussion describe an eyewall in a 40 kt storm?! --HurricaneMaker99 04:04, July 1, 2013 (UTC) :::I read that to in the disco. By the way, it isn't terribly rare for weak storms to develop eyewalls and eye-like features. Banding-type eye is very common and has occured for Gustav as tropical depression, Josephine, Polo, Igor and Adrian as weak to moderate tropical storms. Banding-type eyewalls are incomplete and do not last very long, but they do exist in weak storms. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 04:32, July 1, 2013 (UTC) :::Beta in 2005 also have one.Allanjeffs 07:44, July 1, 2013 (UTC) 60 mph, could be a hurricane real soon. 'Ryan1000' 17:27, July 1, 2013 (UTC) :Now a at 60 kts/996 mbar. Dalila is on the brink of becoming our third hurricane. AndrewTalk To Me 21:33, July 1, 2013 (UTC) ::Dalila might but her eyewall collapse she needs to ammend it rapidly or she wont.Allanjeffs 06:02, July 2, 2013 (UTC) : Yeah, Dalila's starting to lose herself, she might not make it to hurricane status unless she repairs her damaged circulation. 'Ryan1000' 15:03, July 2, 2013 (UTC) Hurricane Dalila Special advisory just came out! Dalila's at 65 kts/987 mbar; we have our third hurricane of the season, folks! --HurricaneMaker99 18:17, July 2, 2013 (UTC) :While WPac is having their TS streak (Rumbia a severe tropical storm by the JMA), the EPac is feeling the heat of a hurricane streak. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 19:21, July 2, 2013 (UTC) :I did not expect Dalila to become a hurricane, considering it was in a weakening phase. Hopefully, if it hasn't, it can beat Cosme in terms of intensity! AndrewTalk To Me 20:40, July 2, 2013 (UTC) ::NHC revised the best track to make Dalila a hurricane at 12z instead.--Isaac829 20:48, July 2, 2013 (UTC) :::Andrew, I think so too. The models have been spiking up in terms of intensity and conditions aren't horrible for Dalila. Also, welcome to Wikipedia! - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 21:07, July 2, 2013 (UTC) :::::Didn't see this one coming, especially since she was weakening. I think she could become a bit stronger, maybe 85-90 mph at it's peak. And damn, is she small. Dalila is one of the smallest hurricanes I've seen. 'Ryan1000' 21:11, July 2, 2013 (UTC) :::::::Dalila's shrinking in size, but still a hurricane.Isaac829 16:04, July 3, 2013 (UTC) :::::::Oh, come on! You can't deny that swag. Delila is though, however, expected to weaken to TS intensity by the time we get to tomorrow. By Monday, she'll be vanished. Rara Hooves 20:46, July 3, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Storm Dalila (2nd time) 60 kts/991 mbar. Dalila's dying. BTW, gale force winds extend only 60 miles from the center. This means Dalila is roughly double the size of Cyclone Tracy in 1974. AndrewTalk To Me 23:45, July 3, 2013 (UTC) : Dalila's choking, should be gone by the next advisory.Isaac829 18:12, July 4, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Depression Dalila Dalila's still alive, but barely. Currently, it's at 30 kt/1006 mbar. AndrewTalk To Me 15:23, July 5, 2013 (UTC) :Down to 25 kts. AndrewTalk To Me 20:54, July 5, 2013 (UTC) : It doesn't want to die, but it will soon.Isaac829 20:55, July 6, 2013 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Dalila Finally dead. Well done on staying so resilient, Dalila! FWIW, at one point, Dalila was forecast to have winds of 15 kts/mph as a remnant low. I don't think I've ever seen that in a NHC discussion before. --HurricaneMaker99 13:15, July 7, 2013 (UTC) : Yep, Dalila's down and out. I'm gonna archive everything from here on earlier, the page is starting to get lengthy. 'Ryan1000''' 13:28, July 7, 2013 (UTC)